The Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) warned on 6 November that Chinese arrivals to Thailand could fall about 20% in November and December 2026 against the same two months of 2025, unless confidence returns after the Chinese Embassy's October safety advisory. Explera DMC Thailand separates what is counted from what is forecast, and explains what it means for agents in China and in every other market.
Explera handles ground arrangements as a Thailand DMC for travel agents. Its Thai company, Explera DMC Co., Ltd., holds TAT licence 14/05119, the Tourism Business Licence issued by the Department of Tourism, and the group is IATA TIDS-registered (96215733) and a member of ASTA (900408341). Write to b2b@explera.co.th.
What is confirmed so far?
One number is a count. The Ministry of Tourism and Sports recorded 308,942 Chinese arrivals in October 2026, down 13.57% on October 2025 and, as The Nation reported, the first year-on-year fall for China since February. The advisory behind it was issued by the Chinese Embassy in Bangkok on 16 October. It warned about fraudulent job, business and investment offers that had led some Chinese nationals to go missing or be taken towards the Myanmar border, and told travellers to use licensed operators and legal transport.
The second confirmed point is the government response. Tourism and Sports Minister Surasak Phancharoenworakul met Chinese Ambassador Zhang Jianwei on the evening of 5 November. According to the minister, the ministry and the embassy agreed to set up a joint working group the following week to share information and coordinate help for tourists, aimed at the scam networks that lure Chinese nationals into Myanmar. The minister also said the ambassador described the advisory as one of several similar notices, made larger by media coverage in China. Nothing reported so far says the advisory has been withdrawn.
What is forecast, and what is not?
The 20% figure is ATTA's forecast, not an official one, and ATTA attached a condition to it: the fall would come if the authorities did not do more to restore confidence. ATTA president Thanapol Cheewarattanaporn also estimated that the Chinese group-tour segment has shrunk by at least 40%, and warned that group arrivals over Lunar New Year 2027 could be down by more than half. Those are estimates from the trade body, and the working group, a TAT confidence campaign or a quieter news cycle in China could all move them. Our Chinese New Year 2027 post covers the February side of the same story.
How should agents selling to Chinese clients respond?
Answer the client's question directly instead of waiting for it. The advisory describes people recruited with offers of work or investment, not holidaymakers on a booked itinerary, so the reassurance that holds up is a concrete one: a licensed Thailand DMC on the ground, transfers with named drivers, a guide with the group, and a clear rule that nobody leaves the programme for a job offer, a business meeting or a lift to a border province. Put those points in the joining instructions in Chinese. Our China market page explains how we work with agencies in China, and our Golden Week 2026 results post shows how strong the market was just before the advisory.
Does it change the high season for other markets?
It may ease some pressure, but do not plan on it. ATTA expects European arrivals in November and December to be roughly level with the 2025 high season and Middle East arrivals to stay below last year, so a softer China segment is not the same as an empty December. Where Chinese groups usually take large room blocks, in Bangkok and in Pattaya, some dates may be easier to secure than last year, but independent Chinese travellers and other markets can fill them quickly. Ask for the dates your clients need now rather than waiting for a late opening. Our hotel bookings team can hold space and tell you where it is genuinely open, and the rest of our work is on the Thailand DMC services page.
Next steps
Send your November and December dates, group sizes and source market through our contact page. The trade desk replies within 24 hours, with what is open and what to reconfirm before the new year.
Sources
- Nation Thailand: Chinese arrivals to Thailand could fall 20% in final two months of 2026
- Nation Thailand: Thailand and China plan safety group as Chinese arrivals fall 13.57% in October
- Khaosod English: China warns citizens of job scams, abductions in Thailand
Frequently asked questions
How far could Chinese arrivals fall in November and December 2026?
ATTA forecasts about 20% below the same months of 2025 if confidence is not restored. That is a trade-body forecast. The counted figure is October: 308,942 Chinese arrivals, down 13.57% year on year.
Has the Chinese Embassy withdrawn its advisory?
Not according to anything reported so far. After a meeting on 5 November, the tourism ministry and the embassy agreed to set up a joint working group on scams that target Chinese nationals. Check the latest position before you brief clients.
Are Chinese tour groups still travelling to Thailand?
Yes, but fewer of them. ATTA estimates the group segment has shrunk by at least 40%. Groups travelling with a licensed operator, booked transport and a guide follow exactly what the advisory recommends.
Will hotels in Bangkok and Pattaya have more space this December?
Possibly on some dates, but European demand is expected to be roughly level with last year and other markets can fill rooms quickly. Request the dates you need now rather than waiting for late availability.
