A University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) survey published in early November 2026 found that 59.1% of Thai tourism operators believe Thailand is falling behind its regional rivals, with Vietnam and Japan named most often. UTCC now expects about 31.5 million foreign visitors in 2026. Explera DMC Thailand explains what the survey says, what it does not, and how agents can keep Thailand on the quote.
Explera handles ground arrangements as a Thailand DMC for travel agents. Its Thai company, Explera DMC Co., Ltd., holds TAT licence 14/05119, the Tourism Business Licence issued by the Department of Tourism, and the group is IATA TIDS-registered (96215733) and a member of ASTA (900408341). Write to b2b@explera.co.th.
What did the UTCC survey find?
UTCC's Economic and Business Forecasting Center surveyed 368 tourism operators across the country. 59.1% said Thailand is falling behind competing destinations. Yet 52.2% also said Thailand is more competitive than it was three years ago, so the worry is about rivals moving faster, not about Thailand getting worse. Asked why foreign arrivals fell in the first nine months of 2026, 48.1% pointed to outside factors such as war and fuel prices, 25.3% to problems at home such as flight seats, visa rules, border checkpoints and safety, and 21.7% to travellers choosing other destinations. These are operators' opinions, not measurements, and they should be read that way.
What is UTCC forecasting for 2026 and 2027?
UTCC expects about 31.5 million foreign visitors in 2026, roughly 4.5% below the nearly 33 million of 2025 and under its own earlier estimate. For 2027 it sees a recovery towards 34 million, but centre president Thanavath Phonvichai said reaching that number "carries risks". Treat both as forecasts. For the official counts so far this year, use the Ministry of Tourism and Sports figures rather than a survey.
Where are clients going instead?
The survey names Vietnam and Japan. UTCC linked Vietnam's gains to its 45-day visa-free stay and new direct flights, and reports cited Vietnam's value for money and new attractions. For Japan, UTCC pointed to a weak yen and to fuel surcharges that make long-haul fares to Thailand far more expensive than a short trip to Japan. Operators also asked the government for more flight seats and charters, a fix for delays at the Sadao border checkpoint with Malaysia, stable visa rules and a crackdown on nominee businesses. None of those requests has been decided.
What does Thailand still win on?
In our view as a Thailand DMC, the case is breadth. One trip can combine Bangkok, a beach and the cooler north, with hotels at every level and a domestic flight network that keeps transfers short. Northern Thailand is at its best from November to February, and our Chiang Mai guide shows how much fits into three or four nights. A client weighing Vietnam or Japan is usually comparing one strong product against a whole holiday, and that is the comparison to put in front of them.
How should agents position Thailand in 2026/27 quotes?
Sell value, not a low headline. Quote the whole trip as one package price, then show what it includes: private transfers, hotel choices, guided days and support on the ground. Our FIT packages team builds those quotes, and on request we can split a quote into hotel and land arrangements. Confirm visa rules for each passport before you quote, because rule changes have caused cancellations in some markets this year. And if a client wants Vietnam too, sell both: a twin-centre trip keeps the booking with you. As we wrote in our post on a softer year, a slower market helps your negotiating position. The rest of what we do is on our Thailand DMC services page.
Next steps
Send us your client's dates, group size and budget through our contact page. The trade desk replies within 24 hours.
Sources
- Nation Thailand: Thailand's tourism sector loses competitive edge as regional rivals outpace growth (3 November 2026)
- Asia News Network: Thailand's tourism recovery falters as Asian rivals gain ground (4 November 2026)
Frequently asked questions
Is Thailand really losing tourists to Vietnam and Japan?
59.1% of the operators UTCC surveyed believe Thailand is falling behind its rivals, and they named Vietnam and Japan. That is the industry's view, not a count of travellers who switched. 21.7% of answers blamed travellers choosing other destinations for this year's fall in arrivals.
How many foreign visitors will Thailand get in 2026?
UTCC forecasts about 31.5 million, roughly 4.5% below 2025. It is a forecast. The final figure comes from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports early next year.
What does UTCC expect for 2027?
A recovery towards 34 million visitors, which UTCC's own centre president says carries risks. Plan 2027 on demand you can see, not on the forecast.
How do I keep Thailand competitive in a client quote?
Quote one package price for the whole trip and show what it includes. Use Thailand's range of beach, city and north in one itinerary, check visa rules per passport, and offer a twin-centre option if the client is also looking at Vietnam.
